Super Drought under Global Warming: Concept, Monitoring Index, and Validation

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract Recent decades have witnessed growing frequency and severity of catastrophic droughts in many regions the world. Despite lots studies having been dedicated to extreme drought investigation, fundamental question that has long ignored is, What is drought? The answer much more complex than it first appears, because a critical issue study multiscalar nature. To address challenge, this establishes theoretical basis super concept, which refers simultaneous occurrence at multiple time scales. physical significance represents compound dry extremes all parts water resources or equivalently grand loss total storage, identified as essential determinant distinguishing high-impact from those causing mild damage. quantitative representation, novel monitoring index called comprehensive (CMI) developed based on vine copula framework. It turns out CMI plausible measure determine overall rarity recognize drought. Furthermore, worldwide skill identification are testified against Gravity Recovery Climate Experiment (GRACE) storage. Compared traditional indices lack treatment drought, performs better capturing variation availability enables accurate detection real scarcity, with gross improvements correlation root-mean-square error scores exceeding 10 −3 level. facilitate end users policy-makers, near-real-time historical data repository available through public website superdrought.com .

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

سال: 2023

ISSN: ['1520-0477', '0003-0007']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-22-0182.1